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Cake day: June 23rd, 2023

  • It is isn’t it? I actually talked about that further in the thread. What’s up with that? I’m actually curious about it since well I’m not LGBTQ+ but I’m always interested in understanding more. It’s strange to me that women would prefer lesbian porn films as well as queer films. It doesn’t make sense to me, but statistically that’s what we find. I’d love for someone to explain this to me.

    Edit: Also yes, I can agree it doesn’t show queer support, but it does show ambivalence. After all, it’s the government censors that are letting it through, and they aren’t LGBTQ+. So, they absolutely do not understand it’s targeted at women.


  • Whooo boy that’s a tough topic. So I’m sure what you’re realizing is that LGBTQ+ issues in China isn’t a government thing. The government doesn’t care. The families though, oh god, I mean if we’re going to say there’s oppression in China, it’s from the families. IF you’re lucky and have a good family, great. If you’re not, no one will help you.

    So, of course your best bet is to find extended family that accepts you. This is how there’s a thriving LGBTQ+ community in China. And leads to all the things I was talking about where grandparents over rule parents, but it can also be aunts or other family members. OR and importantly OR because of how guanxi works, you can also find groups of like minded friends who take you in and help you get past these things.

    I’m not here to tell you it’s a great system or it works well. Abuse IS a huge problem there. However, in the western mind it’s all tied to an oppressive government, it’s actually not. It’s a deep cultural issue that is only recently coming to light, and frankly if I’m honest it will get buried just as quickly with a few more rights for people, such as gay civil unions. It’s how China listens to the voice of the people. I know this is confusing, in the west people think of the voice of the people as a direct voice such as democracy. In China it’s complicated. In a weird way, everyone in China is free to do whatever they want, as long as you have the guanxi to back it.

    Edit

    I feel like I should add this has been the way the Chinese government has done things since imperial times. China isn’t communist, a better way of looking at them is they’ve returned to imperial China. It’s bad in many ways as you’ve noticed, parental abuse is an insanely huge problem there. On the other hand, it’s how they handle the rich getting too rich. It doesn’t matter how rich you are if you’ve destroyed all your guanxi, as Elon Musk is discovering.


  • Parent in this case means relative. It’s an Asian societal thing, nothing can happen without an agreement with the family as the family unit is more important than the individual. This is actually a thing in Japan as well.

    So, you might be thinking couldn’t I just fake it. And the answer is yes and happens all the time. Here’s a Times article on it. It’s some what biased since it’s an American paper, but it has the issues fairly correct. The problem is calling it the black market isn’t exactly correct. It’s usually forged documents pretending that you have family consent.

    https://time.com/6261675/china-transgender-hormones-black-market/

    Of course, if you actually are alone and have no family, then you don’t need approval. However, that doesn’t really happen in China as they find your relatives for you, it’s actually what the police stations around the world are actually about. It’s a way for overseas Chinese to find familial contacts so they can proceed with whatever documentation they want.

    Edit

    Actually, hilariously if you get into a civil union with your boyfriend, they can act as consent for your trans gender therapy. So in that situation if you’ve already found a partner it’s totally fine and everyone gets whatever they want. This is actually part of a way China promotes marriages in order to try to get that birth rate up. It just happens they don’t have laws for gay people so it just default applies.

    Edit 2

    If you’re now also thinking couldn’t they just get the grandparents to do it? The answer is also yes. In fact, like 50% of Chinese dramas are about literally this. The grandparents going over the parent’s head and making decisions for their grandchildren. It’s quite a big deal in China. And I’m not talking about LGBTQ+, it’s literally every part of life. China isn’t so much a nation of individuals as it’s a nation of families and the families make all the decisions. It even leaks up to the political level. It’s confusing, but it all makes more sense if you study Chinese culture. This is what guanxi is about. It’s not exactly nepotism.






  • Well, sure. But none of them would be enough pressure to change the US direction. Also, China already basically used all of them.

    Rare earth being the most famous one. But much like sanctions on Russia this will always be leaky.

    Trade with nations on USA’s hit list. Russia being the best example. But China already does trade with them. They’d have to start to break EU and UN sanctions to do more, and while upsetting USA would be nice, they don’t want to create a tear with Europe.

    Stopping Chinese students from going to the US. This would be a longer play, but forcing a reverse brain drain would benefit China to US detriment. However, Trump is already doing this for free.

    Creating actual alliances, if this were to happen it would put USA on the back foot as they’d have many nations they would suddenly have to contend with. However, this goes against China’s very ethos. China believes alliances are problematic and creates divisions in the world. This is why China has no allies. And to China’s point, look at what Trump just did to his allies.

    I could go on. Other options are too weak to make a dent or Trump is already giving it to China for free. It’s hard to make an effective move when your opponent is throwing golden opportunities at you. To be honest, China mostly just wants everything to play out and see where the pieces lay.


  • China absolutely has the power over the US to make the US feel pain. The problem is any use of that power would make China feel just as much pain. It would be self-immolation. The three main things China can do are.

    Cut all exports. Ironically, Trump did that to himself so that’s why Trump capitulated.

    Sell all US assets. Not just bonds. Of course this would absolutely destroy China’s economy, so a no go.

    Nuclear war. But this is the end of humanity, so also a no go.

    So China has the power, but would need to basically be willing to end life as we know it, or do what Trump did to himself. Again, ironically that was the one thing that didn’t involve total annihilation and Trump willingly committed seppuku. So weird.




  • China’s not negotiating. This is the best result for China. As long as USA is going to continually be belligerent with tariffs to all nations, China actually would not benefit with preferential treatment.

    China wants to let the tariffs slowly but persistently eat away at USA’s economy. 30% is just about right as Mexico and Canada are at 25%. China doesn’t need to be the cheapest, just affordable enough that Americans will still buy. So while trade will decrease it won’t stop. This gives China the breathing room they need to build up supply chains everywhere else. All the while Americans will afford less and less as tariffs eat away at their income. This will lead to less business creation activity and destroy manufacturing as the manufacturing inputs being tariffed makes USA products unaffordable.

    If this looks like China is capitulating, all the better. Though most people realize it’s Trump that blinked. Since their counter actions aren’t really tariffs to begin with. China can order their companies who they buy from and more importantly who they don’t.






  • The biggest issue I have isn’t that they’re evil. Though obviously that’s a huge issue, but that they are woefully incompetent. We’ve seen this type of evil before in the USA. Richard Nixon is obviously well known to be a greedy goon. But he did it in a way people didn’t really see it until after he was impeached. Trump is way too obvious for his own good. Though, maybe that’s a good thing… Burn it down asap


  • No, the tariffs are actively preventing monetary easing. If you were wondering what the news about bond rates and the conflict between Bessent and Powell is about, it’s because they can’t ease.

    At a core easing relies on borrowing money to fix the downturn. Usually, when a downturn happens, interest rates go down because there’s less to invest in. If you can’t get a 8% return on stocks, you buy bonds until bond returns go below 4% or so. Except, thanks to crazy man tariffs, no one trusts the bonds anymore. So USA can’t ease.

    I also want to note, this was clearly Bessents original plan. Hurt the economy with tariffs, then do easing and pull more money back into the American Treasury. But oops, no one trusts USA anymore…

    *Edit: Lol, god damn this happens fast. Powell is talking about what I’m talking about here literally just now.

    https://lemmy.ml/post/29763814?scrollToComments=true

    So the inflation he’s talking about is why they can’t ease. Normally when stocks go down, bonds go up it’s caused by deflation. People stop spending money so prices go down and thus, bond rates go down. But we’re not seeing deflation, we’re seeing inflation, which again is causing the inability to monetarily ease. It’s just funny to me we were just talking about this and bam, there’s a news article.


  • That’s a misunderstanding of the causes. Now, admittedly there’s a debate on this so what I will say is an opinion, but one that shows how the tariffs did cause the great depression.

    The problem people have in understanding the great depression is the initial shock isn’t the cause so much as the trigger to the cause which is the tariffs.

    Had the tariffs not come into play, the stock sell off and subsequent deflation could have been resolved with simple monetary easing, which is what we do today. This would have simply been a recession and we would move on. However, the tariffs following the stock sell off is why it’s the great depression and not just a simple recession.

    In fairness, monetary easing policy didn’t really come into play until after Brenton wood agreement. That said, it would have been the right solution during the onset of the great depression.

    So you can’t actually say that tariffs didn’t cause the great depression as again had it not been for tariffs we would have pulled through.



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